Hong Kong Data Releases： Surprise Jump in October Trade Growth： Weakness Ahead N
Upside surprise in October trade performance…:Trade growth surprisingly rebounded sharply in October,with exports growing 9.4% YoY to total HK$277 bn,beating our (+0.9%) as well as market (+0.2%, range-4% to +2%) forecasts. Domestic exports (2.9% of total)fell 23.1% YoY, while re-exports grew 10.9%. In linewith exports, import growth also hopped back todouble-digit growth, up 11.3% YoY, resulting in a tradedeficit of HK$14 bn (+65% YoY). It appears that theglobal financial turmoil since mid-September has yet toimpact shipments through the Hong Kong port, and theresults were especially surprising given the noticeableweakening in trade growth reported by China in themonth. Pickup in exports was almost entirelyattributable to shipments to China (+14% vs -1.2% inSep) and Japan (+17.1% vs -0.3%), while shipments towestern markets such as US (-1.9% vs +7.5%), UK(-0.2% vs +7%) and Germany (+18.1% vs +21.3%)weakened.… but weakness expected ahead: Monthly trade datatends to be rather volatile. Fluctuations aside, weexpect to see noticeable deterioration in trade growth inthe remaining months of the year and in 2009. We lookfor 5% contraction in both exports and imports next year,which will also set to hurt private sector fixed investment(we forecast -4%), and bring economic growth intonegative territory (we forecast -1.2%).摩根士丹利香港证券有限公司
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